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Do self-driving cars experience a technological bubble?
In 2017, autopilot technology saw a significant acceleration in development, drawing billions of dollars in investment. The potential for massive wealth in the automated driving industry is widely anticipated, yet some experts are questioning whether autonomous driving could become the next technological bubble. With so much capital flowing into the sector, concerns about an irrational surge in growth have emerged.
Artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in advancing self-driving capabilities, especially in handling complex real-world scenarios such as construction zones or adverse weather conditions. To address these challenges, automakers are increasingly investing in AI research. For example, Ford committed $1 billion over five years to ArgoAI, an artificial intelligence startup, in early 2017.
Toyota has also made major investments in this space. In 2015, it established the Toyota Research Institute with a $1 billion investment, aiming to use AI to enhance human life quality. By 2017, Toyota further expanded its efforts by creating Toyota AIV Ventures, a $100 million fund targeting AI, robotics, and autonomous technologies. However, this is just a small part of the broader trend. According to a 2017 report by the Brookings Institution, more than $80 billion has been invested in autonomous driving since 2013.
Intel is another major player in the self-driving car industry. It introduced the concept of the "passenger economy," projecting that by 2050, this sector could be worth up to $7 trillion. Intel has partnered with companies like BMW and Warner Bros. Entertainment to integrate its chips into self-driving vehicles. Additionally, Intel acquired Mobileye for $15.3 billion, further solidifying its position in the market.
Delphi is also making big moves in the autonomous vehicle space. It split its powertrain division into two separate companies: Ambrose and Delphi Technologies. Ambrose focuses on transforming future mobility, offering safer, greener, and more connected travel solutions to global customers.
Waymo, a leader in autonomous driving, had already accumulated over 4 million miles of real-world testing by November 2017. In April 2017, the company launched its “Early Rider†program in Phoenix, offering autonomous rides to local residents. Later that year, Waymo announced that its service would transition to fully driverless vehicles, eliminating the need for a human operator.
Looking back, the internet experienced a similar boom and bust cycle after its initial hype. Could the self-driving car industry face a similar fate? While the road ahead is uncertain, the continued investment and innovation suggest that the technology is here to stay—but whether it will sustain long-term value remains to be seen.