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Do self-driving cars experience a technological bubble?
In 2017, self-driving technology saw significant progress and attracted billions in investment. Many believe that the future of automated driving holds immense potential for wealth and innovation. However, some experts are questioning whether this field could become the next technological bubble, similar to past overhyped sectors. With so much capital flowing into autonomous systems, there's a risk of irrational growth and unrealistic expectations.
Artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in advancing self-driving capabilities, especially in handling complex real-world scenarios like construction zones or bad weather. To improve these systems, automakers have been heavily investing in AI research. For example, Ford committed $1 billion to ArgoAI, an AI startup, over five years. Similarly, Toyota invested $1 billion in its Toyota Research Institute in 2015, with a focus on using AI to enhance human life. In 2017, it also launched Toyota AI Ventures, a $100 million fund targeting AI, robotics, and autonomous technologies.
Intel is also making big bets on the future of self-driving cars. The company introduced the concept of the "passenger economy," projecting it could be worth up to $7 trillion by 2050. Intel has partnered with companies like BMW and Warner Bros., and acquired Mobileye for $15.3 billion to strengthen its position in the market.
Delphi, another major player, has restructured its business to focus more on autonomous driving. It split its powertrain division into two companies, Ambrose and Delphi Technologies, both aiming to deliver safer and smarter mobility solutions.
Waymo, a leader in autonomous technology, had driven over 4 million miles on public roads by November 2017. In April 2017, it launched its "Early Rider" program in Phoenix, offering self-driving services to local residents. By November, Waymo was testing fully autonomous vehicles without any human driver.
Looking back, the internet experienced a similar cycle—overheated early on, then faced a bubble before eventually rebounding. Could the self-driving industry follow a similar path? Only time will tell, but with so much investment and innovation, the road ahead remains exciting and uncertain.