General Manager Yu Weixing, Aowei Consulting Fiber Optic Attenuator,Optical Attenuator,Fiber Attenuator,Attenuator Fiber Huizhou Fibercan Industrial Co.Ltd , https://www.fibercannetworks.com
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Sina Technology News April 22 news hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Operations Monitoring and Coordination Bureau, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Electronic Information Division, China Electronics Video Industry Association (CVIA) and Aowei Consulting (AVC) company hosted "2010 In the first quarter of the year, China's electronic information industry economic operation and color TV industry research conference was held in Beijing today. Sina Technology broadcasted the conference live.
The picture shows the general manager of Auwei Consulting Company Yu Liangxing. The following is the content of his speech:
Yu Liangxing: Dear experts, distinguished leaders, distinguished guests, friends of the media, now the time is relatively late, I will use a relatively short time to report to you the basic situation of the 10-year color TV market, and also to the situation in the next few quarters. A big overview. My report is divided into three aspects: the review of the market in the first quarter, the judgment of the current main situation, and the outlook of the future market trends.
First look at the basic situation of the color TV retail market in the first quarter, we can use about five aspects of the characteristics:
The first is that in terms of market size, the color TV market maintained a high growth trend throughout the first quarter, continuing the high growth in the second half of last year. What is the status? In the first quarter, retail volume and retail sales increased by 44%, and retail sales were 60%. The new gold development cycle is a good start.
Specific to different product types: LCD TV is still the entire color TV industry engine, the first quarter growth reached 106.5%, while flat-panel TV plasma TV has also grown, the first quarter increased by about 19%, but we see that in fact, relative In terms of the situation in the fourth quarter of last year, the growth in the chain is not particularly obvious. It is only a one-digit increase. We also talked about the CRT. In the first quarter of this year, its situation is somewhat improved, growing, falling. The speed has slowed down noticeably, now 40%, and this time last year was 60%.
Therefore, from the current market situation, especially the growth of flat-panel TVs last year reached the growth rate of 100% in the second half of last year. The growth rate of flat-panel TVs in the first quarter was 99%. Such a growth is actually in line with the expectations of our enterprises. The gap, its growth rate began to slow down.
In the overall situation in the first quarter of this year, the most important thing is that the two holidays on New Year's Day and Spring Festival have driven the growth of the entire market. In March, whether it is 315 or Ching Ming Festival, the whole growth is not obvious. In general, the market size in the first quarter continued to grow last year.
Second, the part of home appliances going to the countryside, the market's recognition of home appliances to the countryside is very high, the current market sales accounted for one-third of the national market, of which flat-panel TV sales contributed 70%, which is the most important product of home appliances to the countryside One of the products, we can see that in the part of home appliances going to the countryside, since the fourth quarter of last year, the monthly sales volume exceeded 1 million units. This year is also continuing this trend. Now the third and fourth-tier markets, home appliances The proportion of rural areas in the rural market is 70%, flat-panel TVs are 70% in home appliances, and the entire flat-panel TVs account for about 30% of the entire market.
Third, in terms of brand competition, the domestic brand market share is relatively stable, and the advantages of the third- and fourth-tier markets are very obvious. Specifically, we can look at the domestic brands and foreign brands in the first quarter is 79:21, which should be 8:2. The domestic market is 70:30, and the rural market is 90:10. Such a structure deserves our attention is the urban and rural markets. In the rural market and foreign brands, this year’s market strategy has changed, from last year’s particularly conservative strategy. The transition is relatively positive and should be very obvious, for the encroachment of competition in the primary and secondary markets.
We can see that in the first quarter, the status of foreign brands in the entire urban market has been improved, making the current structure ratio 70:30, especially the price of some foreign brands, which is close to the price of our domestic brands, including 32. Inch, 2999 this product is very common.
The advantages of domestic brands should be in the rural market, the service system is the advantage, and the domestic brands in the rural market have obvious advantages. Last year, foreign brands have accelerated the development in the rural market, including sales terminals, home appliances to the countryside, construction of marketing systems, foreign investment. The brands are all focused on breaking through the third- and fourth-tier markets. At present, the domestic brand advantage is very obvious.
The fourth part is the market segment, some emerging products, our network TV ITV TV, its market accounts for about 10% of the color TV scale, this piece, especially the retail sales part, has exceeded 15%, we Ovi Consulting (AVC) This trend of growth will continue this year. It is expected that this year's scale will be about 7.77 million units, and the overall market share will exceed 20%. The development of IPTV in the domestic market is very rapid.
In IPTV, it is mainly driven by our domestic brands. Now, some foreign brands have joined the camp of IPTV. From the perspective of brand competition, IPTV will develop rapidly in the Chinese market. As far as the specifications are concerned, the penetration force at the large size is relatively large, and the penetration force of the small size is relatively low, which is about 20% higher.
The fifth part: in the LED-backlit LCD TV part, it is similar to the network TV, its growth rate is also very fast, the sales volume is 4%, the sales are more than 8%, close to 9%, of which We are worthy of attention, LED-backlit LCD TV, which is driven by foreign brands, but in terms of market performance, after about two or three quarters of market promotion last year, we can now see the pace and market of domestic brands. The growth is very fast. At present, a pattern of 23%, the promotion of domestic brand LED-backlit TV in this respect is such an achievement. So specific to the LED-backlit LCD TV part, the price of the 47-inch and small-size 22-inch is very close, and now the price is about 1.5 times. This 1.5-fold is a key place for the substitution effect, which is 1.5 times from the partial specification. One of our tips is that LED backlights will replace our CCL products on a large scale in the near future.
This is a review of the five aspects, then we look at the current situation.
The first part, the entire resource part, is concerned with the supply and demand parts of the global panel resources. From the perspective of the global supply of panels this year, let's take a look at the demand. This picture is the world's major brand. For an estimate of this year's demand, we can see that several important brands, including Samsung and LG, Or Sony, this year's procurement and demand has been greatly improved, it has increased by more than 20%, and another important part is in the Chinese market, this upgrade is very fast, so the demand for panels is generally global More than 30% growth, it is expected to reach 180 million pieces this year. From the supply side, the world's six major suppliers, their market share, for this year's market is estimated to be 186 million pieces, so supply The size and demand scale are slightly higher than the demand, which is probably a state of balance between supply and demand, and there will be a tight phase in the peak season.
The global demand for panels is increasing. There are very few panels for domestic production. Our specific growth in such a demand makes us account for 20% of the global market demand. This 20% is relative to the global speaking power. Not enough to affect the panel of the global market.
From the perspective of the supply side, why is there such a big increase this year? The new generations above the sixth generation line have increased substantially. From the specific point of view, South Korea’s Samsung and LGD, these two parts, their six generation lines basically expand greatly, the key is the 8.5 generation line. Put into production, regarding the Taiwan part, we have Chi Mei's 8.5 generation line, which is a plan for a relatively large-scale expansion. Japan's Sharp in the 10th generation line, starting last year, this year's production capacity will reach a relatively high level in the second half of the second half of the year.
In addition, China's BOE 6th generation line will be put into production. A small number of panels will be put into production this year. From the perspective of the global major panel market, there will be a big increase in supply this year, and this growth will be more than 30% higher than last year.
In such a situation, panel resources are especially domestic brands. Because there are very few domestic production panels, it is still very important for the management of the entire supply volume for panel resources. Let’s take a look at domestic Brands are procured in the entire supply panel.
We see this picture (PPT) is the purchase of panels from last year to this year, the panel holdings in the second half of last year exceeded 25%, the average is about 20%. Therefore, China has now become a large country with a demand for panels, and is the largest country in the world in terms of manufacturing and consumption.
In the process of procurement, there are some differences in the seasonality and volatility of our domestically purchased panels and international procurement panels. The volatility of domestic procurement panels is significantly greater than the volatility of the entire global market, which increases the entire supply chain. The analysis of the management process, the judgment of the market and the impact on the season are very important links in the supply chain management process.
Due to the relatively large increase in purchases in the second half of last year, we now have a serious problem in the supply management process, which can be seen (see PPT). The part of the blue line is the domestic sales part, the red line is the part of the panel purchase, the green line is the part of the panel and the whole machine inventory, and our current situation has a relatively large inventory increase. What kind of situation will arise? The situation is that the slowness of our inventory consumption is a big impact on the profitability of the whole enterprise. Therefore, at present, the inventory is still relatively slow, and it will face the pressure of inventory management and turnover in the future.
Therefore, in the face of the current situation, there are some trends in the price trend of LCD panels. In particular, the demand for panels in the notebook market is not as high as the original. In the second quarter, the price of the panel will appear to a certain extent. Down, by the second half of the year, this situation will be maintained and the panel prices will remain relatively high.
It is expected that the price of the panel will drop slightly in the second quarter, especially the 32-inch panel we care about is about 190-200 yuan, so the key management is a very important job for us.
The third domestic brand share is relatively high, and now it is 80:20. Now it faces several pressures: in the urban flat part, two distinct advantages of foreign brands, the advantages of LED backlight and resource advantages, probably this year’s situation Look, Samsung and LG supply account for 70% and 80% of the global market. It is expected to be 20 million suppliers. LG is 15 million. We have the advantage of LED backlight panel. The second 3D TV is still a concept. But last year, backlight LED, Samsung made a lot of money in the world, his 3D TV made a lot of money, is also a pressure for domestic brands, we look at 3D TV is still a research and development stage, this is a product, real sales still take a while .
The second part of the Internet TV ITV, everyone is actively investing, sales are also very good, but there is no clear standard, this level of homogenization is very high, in the new standard is developed for this market has a certain The advantage is very good for the reduction of product cost. In the low-end part of the city tablet, I also talked about foreign brands just now, with 2999 products. For domestic brands is a pressure.
The third is the rural flat-panel TV. The rural flat-panel market has a great influence on domestic brands. In the next few years, with the maturity of the sales of state-owned brands, there will be very much in the rural market. Great pressure.
This is some judgment on the current situation. So we have done some analysis on the future market. We believe that this year's May 1 market will be a very important watershed in the 10-year color TV market. The first aspect is that it is affected by the inventory of the whole machine in the first quarter, which makes it urgent to digest the inventory. This can not be well digested, it will be a very important point of view. In the second aspect, can high-end products have a good scale in May 1st, from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, not only LED-backlit TV or IPTV, but its current market share is still relatively low. . Therefore, through this situation of May 1st, it is very important to establish a product sales structure, which plays a vital role in the layout of the product chain.
The third aspect is the part of ITV. This part is an important part of our discussion today. It is a very important aspect that May 1 can produce obvious effects.
The fourth is the low-end brand.
The fifth round of our home appliances to the countryside this year, a new round of bidding products of 7,000 yuan can achieve large-scale sales, so from these aspects, it is very important that May 1 this year can achieve rapid growth in the second half of the year. A watershed. We think we will wait and see.
For the second quarter, we achieved a 44% growth in the first quarter. In the second quarter, we expect its sales to be less than 7 million units. Compared with the first quarter, we have some reductions in absolute volume. Last year, we expected 40% growth, so it is still Continued the trend of high growth.
From the perspective of the whole year, it is estimated that the market size will be close to 40 million units this year, LCD TVs will probably be more than 33 million units, and plasma will exceed 30 million units.
Looking at the growth of the whole year, we can see that the year-round growth from a high growth at the beginning of this year to a relatively low growth at the end of the year is a state of high and low. Because of the rising situation last year, the first quarter and second quarter of last year were in a state of negative growth. The growth in the first and second quarters of this year is very obvious, and the growth rate will slow down in the third and fourth quarters.
Judgment of the May 1 market. This year's May 1 market growth scale is about 50% higher than last year's growth, far lower than the growth rate of this year's New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, but such 51% market sales have started most of the promotion, now for May 1st LCD TV sales of 2.53 million units, an increase of 56%. 