When will SSD prices drop? Xiao Bian has been asked this question countless times this year. Based on current technology and capacity trends, it's expected that prices may start to decline in the second half of next year. However, there's even better news: QLC technology is set to become more popular next year. As prices come down, storage capacities could double. For example, if you previously bought a 120GB SSD, you might be able to get a 240GB one next year. SSDs are electronic chips that use electrical signals to erase stored data. Starting from SLC, they evolved through MLC to today’s TLC, and now QLC is set to replace TLC as the dominant flash memory technology. This evolution is all about increasing storage density while keeping costs low. The reason QLC is taking over from TLC is its ability to increase storage density. SLC stores just 1 bit per cell, offering the best performance and longest lifespan, but at a high cost and limited capacity. MLC followed, storing 2 bits per cell, which doubled the capacity and made it more affordable, though with slightly lower performance and endurance. TLC then came into play, storing 3 bits per cell, further increasing capacity and reducing costs. However, this came at the expense of fewer write cycles. Early TLC drives had only 500–1,000 P/E cycles, but today, many offer up to 3,000, matching MLC in terms of endurance. Now, QLC is stepping in, aiming to replace TLC. Although early QLC drives had around 100–150 P/E cycles, recent advancements have pushed this number closer to 1,000, making them much more reliable. So, when QLC finally hits the market, there's no need to worry about endurance anymore. With higher storage density, we can expect larger SSDs at lower prices. The cost of TLC is already 30%–50% less than MLC, and QLC is even cheaper—up to 25% less than TLC. Plus, as manufacturers ramp up production next year, we’re likely to see a big shift toward affordable, high-capacity SSDs. Still worried about SSD lifespan? Here's a simple formula to estimate how long your drive will last. The "P/E times" in the calculation refers to the number of full writes across the entire drive's capacity.
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