2017 China's manufacturing industry outlook, manufacturing industry limited production or the trend of the times At the beginning of October, the coal, steel and cement markets spurred all the way, pushing the rail freight volume in October to the highest level in more than a year. However, this also caused the raw material cost of the manufacturing industry to rise: 97.68 million tons of steel, up 4.1% year-on-year; and 10.5 million tons of ten non-ferrous metals, an increase of 3.2%.
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On the other hand, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. The added value of the mining industry fell by 2.2% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry grew by 6.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries grew by 7.9%. Sales in the automotive and real estate markets hit their first low in nearly half a year. This indicates that the retail sales will continue to decline in the next year.
In the general direction, while the renminbi depreciated, the Fed raised interest rates and the new US President Trump took office to implement a new economic policy centered on protecting the United States.
All the signs are presented to us with a less optimistic 2017. Under the influence of many factors, what is the current status of China's manufacturing industry represented by steel, magnetic materials and coal?
In the past few decades, traditional manufacturing industries dominated by steel, magnetic materials and coal have been chronically committing suicide for many years. Take the steel and magnetic materials industry, overcapacity has become a headache for major companies. As the supply exceeds demand, the company is burdened with a large amount of debt, and the debt of some enterprises is even equivalent to the value of all its assets. This forced Chinese banking regulators to intervene.
According to reports, in order to reduce the bank's loan exposure to the steel (and other) industries, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has planned to encourage local governments to provide assistance to steel companies with the most debt burden, and participate in debt-to-equity swaps between these companies and banks. plan.
However, behind the bank takeover is the sharp rise in the non-performing loan ratio, which is the worst outcome of the market economy. The overcapacity of small and medium-sized enterprises and the high threshold of bank loans will inevitably lead to the break of the capital chain of enterprises and the threat of bankruptcy.
To the overall situation, to limit production or manufacturing <br> <br> become the trend of international market, we should prepare for a rebound in Europe and America for Chinese manufacturing market: US President Trump after taking office, will strengthen the protection of the country's trade . The European steel industry has been vigorously lobbying against China’s market economy status in December according to China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. This will exacerbate overseas resistance to Chinese manufacturing.
China accounts for more than half of global manufacturing output, and the trade surplus may change for a long time.
So, what does the renminbi’s exchange rate against the US dollar mean?
On November 24, the yuan fell below 6.9 against the dollar, creating a new low since 2008. The Chinese market is facing depreciation pressures caused by shrinking trade surpluses and capital outflows. At the same time, the Fed’s interest rate hike and double blessing on Trump’s New Deal will result in a depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and a strong upward trend in the US dollar.
For businesses and individuals, exchange rate changes will affect the balance sheet. The prospects of related companies holding US dollar debt are worrisome.
Some experts have analyzed that we are entering the third stage of the strengthening of the US dollar, after each dollar's strength stage was accompanied by a financial crisis. The reason for this is that the strong dollar will return capital to the United States. For capital outflow countries, a large amount of capital will be fled, and once Mexico, Russia and Malaysia have suffered these blows. 
Coupled with the impact of the strong US dollar mentioned above on corporate and national balance sheets, the turmoil in domestic financial markets, these two factors may make China's manufacturing industry enter the crisis hidden stage.
In summary, we can foresee the following trends in 2017:
1. At the same time as raw materials rise, the retail sales will continue to decline in the next year. Second, limited production or become the trend of the manufacturing industry. 3. The renminbi faces the depreciation pressure brought about by the narrowing of the trade surplus and capital outflow. According to the above trend, where will the manufacturing industry go? What?
The author believes that the rise in raw materials and the increase in production costs of enterprises are indisputable facts. The retail sales will decline in the next year, indicating that demand will still rise. It is not difficult to imagine that the country’s specific standard for limiting production must be the survival of the fittest. Doing a good job in industrial upgrading and fine-grained division of labor, and properly outsourcing non-advantageous projects can help enterprises tide over the difficulties.
For medium and large enterprises, in the slow growth period, they can spend through resource integration and optimization of internal management. However, for small and medium-sized enterprises, the ability to resist risks is not particularly high. Faced with this series of objective risks, it is difficult to make optimal control and face the pressure of being shuffled.
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It can be seen that manufacturing companies prioritize close cooperation with industry-related platforms, which can effectively achieve circular development and assist industrial upgrading.
The 2017 annual meeting is a year of manufacturing reshuffle, a year of deep division of labor in the industry division of labor, and a year of win-win development for manufacturing and industrial service platforms. This is a challenge for the whole industry and an opportunity for those who are capable. Instead of listening to the wind and listening to the rain, it is better to attack!
2017 China's manufacturing industry outlook, manufacturing industry limited production or the trend of the times
With the initial development of the emerging service industry platform, the new form of manufacturing operation mode has also changed. But the prospects for China's manufacturing industry in 2017 are still unknown.